Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Dec.) The bigger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in December adds to the evidence that the economy performed terribly in the final quarter of last year. We think that GDP may have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, but easing cycle not far away The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold suggests that policymakers may have been unnerved by the recent wobble in the lira. But with inflation likely to ease further, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what can we learn from past easing cycles? Past experience suggests that the macroeconomic conditions are now in place for the Turkish MPC to start reversing last year’s monetary tightening. We expect the one-week repo rate to be cut by 50bp... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT to loosen policy, rapid CEE growth unlikely to last Further evidence this week that the Turkish economy is in the midst of a severe recession adds to the reasons to expect that the MPC will cut interest rates next week. Meanwhile, another batch of... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for October suggest that, after contracting in Q3, the economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q4. Weak economic growth... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank preparing for rate cuts in early 2019 The statement accompanying today’s decision by Turkey’s central bank to leave policy on hold suggests that the MPC is contemplating rate cuts. With inflation falling back and political pressure on the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2018) The effects of August’s currency crisis caused Turkey’s economy to contract in Q3 and more timely evidence suggests that the downturn deepened in Q4. Our forecast that GDP will fall by 0.5% over 2019... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The greater-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 21.6% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank pushes ahead with an interest cut in the coming months. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker currency helping Turkey more than Argentina A rise in inflation and higher interest rates mean Turkey and Argentina are likely to experience deep recessions over the next couple of quarters. However, whereas the fall in the lira should help to... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for September add to the evidence that the economy is entering a deep recession. Our GDP growth forecasts lie well below the consensus. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
