Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weaker lira softening the blow The sharp fall in the Turkish lira since the start of the year has pushed up inflation and caused financial conditions to tighten markedly, tipping the economy into recession. But there are signs that... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in October, to 25.2% y/y, is unlikely to prompt further interest rate hikes from the central bank. Instead, the main risk is that, with pipeline... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: further rate hikes unlikely to materialise The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today and the accompanying statement reinforce our view that last month’s aggressive rate hike didn’t represent a shift back to... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production held up better-than-expected in August but there are clear signs that underlying growth in the sector is losing momentum. The effects of the recent currency crisis and... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Balance of Payments (Aug.) Turkey’s current account position improved further in August adding to the evidence that a weaker lira is helping the economy to rebalance. But this adjustment has almost entirely reflect a slump in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 24.5% y/y in September increases the chances of another interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. But given the scale of last month’s rate... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The much stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production for July suggest that the boost to competitiveness from the fall in the lira in May and June has supported the sector. But these predate... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2018) The Turkish economy grew at a strong pace of 5.2% y/y in Q2 but the monthly activity data show that there was a loss of momentum towards the end of the quarter. More timely figures point to a steep... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what will the CBRT deliver? Turkey’s central bank has all but confirmed that it will raise interest rates at next week’s MPC meeting and an increase of 350-400bp seems to be the bare minimum that will be needed to soothe... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
