Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Turkey’s crisis affect other EMs? Aside from the impact on a few small neighbouring countries, most notably Bulgaria, the direct risk of contagion from Turkey’s crisis to other EMs is fairly low. However, Turkey’s problems may add to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions and the importance of balance sheets The fact that the US sanctions (or the threat of) are having a bigger impact on financial markets in Turkey than Russia reflects the latter’s much stronger balance sheets as well as the credibility of... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How can Turkey get out of its crisis? The lesson from other countries that have suffered from currency crises is that fiscal and monetary policy will need to tighten, preferably under the auspices of an IMF deal, to stabilise the economy... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Turkey’s banking sector risks The plunge in the lira and rise in borrowing costs is likely to push the Turkish economy into a technical recession in the second half of this year. But the vulnerabilities that have built up in the... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: another emergency rate hike? The Turkish lira has recovered some of its losses in the past few hours, but the plunge in the currency over the past few weeks is now on a scale which has, in the past, prompted the central bank to... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update No Turkish delight for Istanbul office rents With Turkey’s economy heading for a sharp slowdown, further weakness in the lira and high availability of office space, the decline in prime office rents in Istanbul has further to run. 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation to a 15-year high of 15.8% y/y last month, coming alongside further lira weakness following the imposition of US sanctions, strengthens the case for interest rate hikes... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: assessing the fallout from US sanctions The sanctions imposed by the US on two Turkish government ministers in themselves aren’t very big, but it looks likely that more measures will be announced. The lira is likely to fall further... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: here comes the slowdown The latest hard activity data from Turkey has been surprisingly robust, but more timely survey evidence and low-profile data suggest that a sharp slowdown is underway. Officials are reportedly... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s public finances: the last pillar to crumble President Erdogan’s growing influence over monetary policy leaves the public finances as the last remaining strong point of Turkey’s economy. But the budget position has deteriorated in recent years... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank bows to Erdogan The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, when most had expected at least a 100bp hike, suggests that President Erdogan is already using his strengthened... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for May, at first sight, suggest that the economy has weathered the recent financial market turmoil, but we doubt that this resilience... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish inflation spiralling out of control? Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected consumer price figures from Turkey provides further evidence that falls in the lira are feeding through into higher inflation more quickly and to a greater extent... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.4% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates, perhaps by 100bp, at its meeting later this month. 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
