Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s strong recovery won’t last Turkey’s economy enjoyed a strong first half of the year, but growth is close to peaking and we think that it will slow in 2018-19, and by more than most expect. What’s more, given the vulnerabilities... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) Turkish industrial production data was a little weaker than expected in June, but the figures still suggest that GDP growth in Q2 was probably stronger than in the first quarter of the year. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation, to 9.8% y/y last month, from 10.9% y/y in June, is likely to make the central bank more confident that it can reverse the monetary tightening... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Big gains for Turkish equities behind us The surge in Turkish equities earlier this year appears to have been aided by improvements in the real economy, but the more recent rise has been due to global risk appetite. There is scope for... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC stands pat, but rate cuts likely later this year The tone of the Turkish MPC statement published at today’s meeting remained relatively hawkish, but we think that falling inflation is likely to prompt the Council to start loosening monetary policy... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s widening budget deficit: red flag or red herring? The recent loosening of fiscal policy in Turkey seems, in part, to be a justified response to the economic slump following last year’s coup attempt. But any sign that it represents the start of a more... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) Despite the slowdown in Turkish industrial production growth in May, it still looks like overall GDP growth may have been stronger in Q2 than it was in Q1. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) & Turkey CPI (Jun.) Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe suggest that growth in Central Europe remained robust at the end of Q2, while Turkey’s economy strengthened. Meanwhile, the sharper-than... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
