Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that Russia’s gradual recovery continued at the end of Q3, while growth in Central Europe was relatively strong. Elsewhere, the sharper-than-expected fall in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook The decision by Moody’s to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to non-investment grade comes at a time when investment in Turkish commercial property is struggling. Given a worsening economic and... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign credit rating this month and the loss of the country’s investment grade status caused a small and short-lived sell-off in local financial markets, but perhaps... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp was accompanied by a clear shift in the Council’s focus to concerns about the economic slowdown. This provides even more... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.1% y/y, predates July’s coup attempt and we expect growth to be much weaker in the coming quarters. Indeed, the early signs suggest... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production in July provides a clear sign that the coup attempt caused severe disruptions to the economy. And leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI suggest... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The latest batch of PMIs from Emerging Europe suggests that, in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened last month. But the surveys provide further evidence that Turkey’s economy has... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook The decision by the Turkish MPC to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, provides further evidence that the Council is paying scant regard to its inflation target and more... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkey’s failed coup adds pressure for retail rents to fall With heightened uncertainty stemming from last month’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, a slowdown in economic growth and further weakness in the lira will put downward pressure on prime Istanbul retail... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
