Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets welcome AK victory, economic problems remain The Turkish lira and stock market have rallied following Sunday’s election results, which delivered the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of a small AK party majority in parliament. This has alleviated concerns... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s election Opinion polls suggest that Sunday’s parliamentary election in Turkey will deliver another hung parliament, and immediate attention is likely to concentrate on the likelihood of a coalition being... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC belatedly acknowledges dire inflation outlook The Turkish MPC left its key interest rates unchanged today, but the accompanying press release suggests that the Council may finally have recognised that inflation is set to rise further. This... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for August were, on the face of it, encouraging as the current account deficit fell to its lowest monthly level since 2009. But it’s worth noting that the decline in... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s bank risks The IMF has put the vulnerabilities in the Turkish banking sector – which we have been warning about for several years – back into the spotlight. So far, there have been remarkably few signs of stress... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weakening demand coincides with office supply boom in Istanbul Weakening demand growth, an influx of new supply and the sharply depreciating lira are all set to have a negative impact on the office occupier market in Istanbul over the coming years. As such, the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Economic Sentiment Indicators strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe this month, suggesting that the region continued to grow at a healthy pace in the third quarter. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Prospect of fresh elections adds to headaches for Turkey Markets have reacted negatively to news that coalition negotiations between the two largest parties in Turkey have broken down and that fresh elections are now highly likely. While we don’t think... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Industrial Production (Jun.) The faster-than-expected expansion in Turkish industrial production, of 5.5% y/y, in June was, in part, due to a rebound in the auto sector following strikes in May. But overall, this figure adds to... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) & Turkey CPI (Jul.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the escalation of the Greek crisis had little impact on manufacturing in Central Europe. Meanwhile, there was good news from Turkey as the PMI ticked... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
