Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty adds to an already ugly picture in Turkey The loss by Turkey’s AK Party of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 makes President Erdogan’s desire to change the constitution to strengthen the presidency a pipe dream and... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) & Hungary Retail Sales (Apr.) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 8.1% y/y, was driven by a pick-up in core price pressures and provides further evidence that the economy’s inflation problems are escalating. Elsewhere... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: potential outcomes and market implications Fears ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary election on 7th June have centred on the risk of a dominant and increasingly authoritarian AK Party under President Erdogan , but in another twist to the plot the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s batch of manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the slump in the Russian economy has deepened in the second quarter. But the surveys finally brought some... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation problem likely to get worse We have been warning about the deep-rooted drivers of Turkish inflation for some time, and it now looks like energy prices will compound the problem by pushing the headline rate even further above the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Hungary CPI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected 4.7% y/y rise in Turkish industrial production in March provides much-needed good news for President Erdogan ahead of next month’s election. But even so, growth in industry... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s raft of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe, released today and yesterday, suggest that conditions in the Russian and Turkish industrial sectors improved a little at the start of the second... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank tinkers around the edges to defend lira The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates unchanged today, but managed to make its monetary policy framework even more complex by tweaking a few obscure tools in an effort to release... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Turkish inflation is deep-rooted There is a growing debate in Turkey about what lies behind the strength of inflation, but we think this discussion has overlooked the absence of spare capacity. Without structural reforms to address... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three scenarios for Turkey after the election Turkish financial markets are becoming increasingly worried about what lies in store after June’s parliamentary election, with fears focusing on the risk of rising authoritarianism under President... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
