Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack After the coup... The failed military coup in Turkey and subsequent government backlash have dominated investors’ concerns over the past week and triggered a sell-off in local financial markets. Policymakers have... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context Turkey’s financial markets have fallen sharply following Friday night’s attempted coup and the subsequent backlash by the government, but the reaction appears relatively mild given the enormity of... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp today suggests the Council views the market volatility stemming from Friday night’s attempted coup (and growing concerns... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.6% y/y, confirms our view that the recent falls in the headline rate were unsustainable. The central bank might still use last... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) & Current Account (Apr.) Growth in the Turkish economy slowed a little in Q1, but it was still extremely strong at 4.5% y/y in working day adjusted terms. Consumption remained the key driver of growth, while investment... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Turkish industry in April suggests that, after a relatively strong Q1, the economy probably slowed at the start of the second quarter. It looks like the boost to the... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: defying gravity…for now After a period of relative calm, growing political tensions have once again led to a deterioration in sentiment towards Turkey. As it happens, we think the country’s growth prospects over the next 6-9... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Mar.) The ongoing improvement in Turkey’s current account position in March was encouraging, but once again it was driven mainly by a falling energy import bill. Moreover, as last week’s sell-off in the... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production data for March indicate that the economy grew at a faster pace in Q1 than in Q4, but that the economy lost momentum towards the end of the quarter. What’s more, the... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Likely resignation of Turkey’s PM raises authoritarianism fears Reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is likely to quit his role amid growing tensions with President Erdogan will reinforce concerns about the shift towards increasingly... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The sharper-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 6.6% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s current easing cycle has further to run. However, the fall in the headline... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation since January has caught many (ourselves included) by surprise and we think the headline rate is likely to continue to fall over the rest of this year. That... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New Turkish central bank governor likely to cut rates further The Turkish MPC’s 50bp cut in the overnight lending rate today, to 10.0%, was pinned on the recent improvement in inflation (although political pressure no doubt played a role) and with the headline... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
