Europe Commercial Property Update Prime rents in Istanbul have further to fall Prime rents in Istanbul have come under pressure from various headwinds recently. And with the prospect of further rises in vacancy, competition for tenants is likely to see rents move lower still. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC ends tightening cycle but stays hawkish The Turkish central bank ended the recent tightening cycle today, but high inflation, strong GDP growth (this year at least), and hawkish comments from the MPC, mean that a shift towards interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2017) The much sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish GDP in Q1, of 5.0% y/y, has prompted us to revise up our GDP growth forecast for the year as a whole to 4.3%. At the margin, today’s figures make it... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) The modest decline in Turkish inflation, to 11.7% y/y last month, supports our view that the MPC will end the recent monetary tightening cycle at next week’s meeting. 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production growth in March was a little stronger than expected, but the 2.8% y/y expansion still paints a picture of a slow recovery from last year’s slump. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The further rise in Turkish inflation in April, to 11.9% y/y, probably marks the peak for the headline rate, and it should slowly reverse course in the coming months. As things stand, our sense is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up inflation fight The Turkish MPC’s surprise move to tighten monetary policy further today via another hike in the late liquidity rate indicates that policymakers may have a greater resolve to tackle the country’s... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: after the referendum… Turkey’s constitutional referendum last Sunday has resulted in a small bounce in local financial markets, with some of the biggest moves coming in short-term local currency bonds. That could be a sign... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) Turkey’s current account deficit remained wide in February, but there are some encouraging signs that the boost to competitiveness from the weak lira may already be having a positive effect. Elsewhere... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) & Turkey Ind. Production (Feb.) The further rise in Czech inflation (both headline and core) last month is, with the koruna cap now at an end, likely to shift attention to the timing of the first interest rate hike. For our part, we... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The sharp rise in Turkish inflation in recent months has been caused by a combination of the fall in the lira, higher petrol inflation and a harsh winter. The impact of these should fade in the coming... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkish Q4 GDP growth came in at a much stronger-than-expected 3.5% y/y, and has prompted us to revise up our forecast for this year from 1.8% to 2.5%. However, in contrast to the consensus, we don’t... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fed gives Turkish MPC cover to tackle inflation problem The Turkish central bank had good domestic reasons to tighten monetary policy today given growing concerns about inflation. But the Fed’s rate hike last night made their job easier by providing some... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
