China Economics Focus 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong 1st July marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China. The city’s economy has continued to prosper over the last two decades, defying gloomy predictions made by some before the handover... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Impact of mainland-HK bond connect likely to be small Regulators this week approved a scheme that will allow investors with brokerage accounts in Hong Kong to invest directly in mainland bond markets, set to be launched before the end of this year. But... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded in Q1 at the fastest pace in five years in y/y terms, boosted by strong growth in exports and investment. But this is likely to be as good as it will get. While external... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Concerns over regulatory tightening spook investors China’s equity markets saw the biggest fall since 2016 in April after policymakers ramped up their rhetoric on limiting financial risks. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable against the US... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New (non-consensus) growth forecasts for Hong Kong Hong Kong’s economy has rebounded over the past year and is likely to stay strong in the near-term, supported by rapid export growth, and we have raised our forecast for 2017. But we expect a fresh... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Feb.) The latest import data from China and India show a mixed picture of gold demand in the two largest consumers. While China’s demand has started the new year on a soft note, an easing of the liquidity... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Carrie Lam solve Hong Kong’s problems? There is little doubt that Carrie Lam, the former head of Hong Kong’s civil service and the candidate preferred by Beijing, will be chosen on Sunday as the city’s next chief executive. But she won’t... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Hong Kong and Singapore: a tale of two housing markets The gradual deflation of what had looked like a housing bubble in Singapore has left the economy in much better shape to cope with rising interest rates. The contrast with Hong Kong, where property... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of strength in labour market In contrast to China’s remarkably stable GDP figures, data on the labour market corroborate evidence from elsewhere that the economy strengthened in recent quarters. China created over 13 million new... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bond rout may have gone too far Chinese bond yields have jumped in recent weeks as strong economic activity and rising inflation have led many to anticipate monetary tightening. Yields may have risen too far. The latest surge in... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read