China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bonds to rally in the coming years FTSE Russell yesterday announced that it will include China in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The resulting shift in passive funds could more than double foreign inflows into Chinese... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT? Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy stabilised last quarter as fiscal stimulus and stronger demand in mainland China offset weaker consumption and investment. But with the city facing its worst COVID-19 outbreak yet... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing cycle nearing an end With fiscal stimulus ramping up and economic recovery well underway, the PBOC appears to see less of a need to encourage stronger private borrowing. Broad credit growth still looks set to accelerate... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s future as a global city in doubt The move by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) to impose a new security law on Hong Kong effectively overrides the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed Hong Kong to prosper... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted by the most on record last quarter as tourism collapsed, trade flows slowed sharply and social distancing weighed on domestic spending. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read