China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse The restrictions on US capital flows into China reportedly being considered by the Trump administration would, at the margin, constrain China’s ability to fund overseas investment. But given China’s... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s banks can weather the storm Early-warning indicators suggest that Hong Kong’s banking system is primed for a crisis. And banks face multiple shocks from an economic recession, a housing market correction and capital outflows... 10th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Crisis still has potential to spill beyond Hong Kong Yesterday’s announcement by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam that the government will withdraw the controversial extradition bill that sparked the current political crisis has raised hopes that... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough A slump in exports by foreign firms is behind much of the recent slowdown in industrial production. While Chinese officials may appreciate the irony of foreign-owned factories being the worst hit by... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi The recent weakening of the renminbi has revived a debate over the economic impact of currency depreciation. There will be both winners and losers domestically. But given that China’s government... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy lost momentum last quarter. Slower trade flows are more to blame for this than the recent protests, adding to downbeat signs on the health of the global economy. 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What do the protests mean for Hong Kong’s economy? The immediate economic impact of the protests in Hong Kong will be very small. But continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy, which is threatened by the proposed extradition law, would undermine a key... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed again in the first quarter of the year, and the economy is now expanding at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. With exports likely to remain in the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain weak in 2019 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a weak note as exports slumped and household spending softened. We think growth will remain subdued in the months ahead. The relatively expansionary budget... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong withstand a property crash? With property sales slowing and monetary conditions likely to remain tight over the coming year, there are growing concerns about a possible slump in home prices in Hong Kong. We expect prices to fall... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read