China Chart Pack PBOC moving to defend key renminbi threshold The renminbi has weakened 2.5% against the US dollar since mid-August and is nearing our year-end forecast of 7.00/$. This is mostly a reflection of broad dollar strength – the renminbi is little... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Show us the money The State Council has expanded on its call for policy support for the economy to be stepped up. But nothing has been done about the funding strains faced by local governments who bear much of the... 2nd June 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year, and although there are signs that activity is rebounding, we expect the recovery to prove weak. While virus containment measures are being... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push Today’s Politburo meeting repeated Xi’s recent call for a step-up in infrastructure construction. A shift is already underway on the ground, with spending accelerating. But the scope for even faster... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong underlines risks of zero-COVID opening Mainland China and Hong Kong both have high vaccination rates in aggregate. But they share a common weakness in having few of their elderly vaccinated. A surge in deaths in Hong Kong is now... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Lockdown to tip Hong Kong into a deep recession The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide some support to Hong Kong’s economy this year. But this is unlikely to fully offset the drag from Fed rate hikes, let alone the massive hit to... 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Green shoots in the housing market Local-level support for the property market is stepping up a gear, with down-payment requirements being eased in a handful of cities. This follows national-level efforts to push down mortgage rates... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy barely grew in Q4 despite a rebound in goods exports. And with stricter containment measures imposed this month to contain the latest outbreak, we expect an outright contraction... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A guide to political events in 2022 Korea, the Philippines and India are each holding elections this year that will play a role in setting fiscal and structural reform priorities, including the possible introduction of a universal basic... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak threatens growth, food panic overdone Our downbeat growth forecasts are largely based on expectations for a deepening downturn in construction and industry. But a worsening COVID-19 outbreak means the biggest near-term threat could be a... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read