China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy continued to contract last quarter and the Coronavirus outbreak will probably keep the city in recession for a while longer. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending A “Phase One” trade deal has reportedly been reached, including a larger-than-expected rollback of US tariffs. But the resulting boost to China’s economy will be modest and the deal still looks at... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets still under strain Corporate bond defaults have jumped recently and the loss-making share of industrial firms has risen to its highest in nearly a decade. This may not trigger an immediate crisis but it is a reminder... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance US President Donald Trump’s signing into law of the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act this week, after it received near-unanimous support in Congress, underlines the extent to which “standing up” to... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions Trump will probably sign the HK Human Rights & Democracy Act into law during the next week or two. But he may delay its implementation in order to avoid derailing the trade talks. Meanwhile, new... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update A slow recovery ahead GDP growth was either flat or picked up slightly in most parts of Emerging Asia last quarter, and we think regional growth will rise gradually over the coming year helped by a slow recovery in exports... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong’s special status matter? If Hong Kong’s special treatment under US law were revoked, the city would lose access to sensitive US technology and face an increased threat of US tariffs. The short-term economic damage would be... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 preliminary) Hong Kong’s first recession in a decade is shaping up to be deeper than anticipated. And while last quarter will probably mark the trough in q/q growth, the city’s economy will continue to struggle. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read