China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q1 A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Tigers in trouble, but better prospects elsewhere The region’s original tiger economies, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea, are likely to struggle over the next couple of years against a backdrop of cooling credit growth, bursting property... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor No rebound yet Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth held up at the start of 2016, but did not rebound as we had hoped. Nonetheless, we still think that a looser policy stance means the data is more... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack “Basically stable” renminbi slides lower Three months after the People’s Bank hinted that it would in future manage the renminbi relative to a currency basket rather than the dollar the jury is still out on what this means in practice... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Housing downturn set to weigh on growth in Hong Kong A plunge in home sales in February is the latest sign that Hong Kong’s overheated property market is now in the midst of a correction. We expect the housing market downturn to weigh on economic growth... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Life in the slow lane for Asia’s Tiger economies With productivity slowing and working age populations set to fall sharply, economic growth in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea is likely to average little more than 2% over the coming years... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) While gold imports by China plummeted in January, India’s buying remained strong. Looking forward, local price premiums suggest that the weakness in imports of gold is likely to have persisted through... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth to remain subdued in 2016 Today’s GDP data confirmed that growth in Hong Kong stayed weak at the end of 2015. Although the government has unveiled a budget that should support growth this year, we don’t think it will be enough... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Outbound tourism continues to boom The number of Chinese tourists travelling abroad continues to rise rapidly. The main destination countries recorded an average increase in visitor arrivals from China of nearly a third last year... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about property price bubbles? Hong Kong made international headlines last week after it was shown to have the least affordable property market in the world. But Hong Kong is not the only economy in the region where property prices... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No sign of labour market fragility Evidence that China’s labour market stayed strong last year should provide some respite from concerns that the country’s economy is collapsing. China created over 13 million new urban jobs in 2015... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stronger end to the year One implication of the US Fed’s decision to raise interest rates is that its concerns about China have receded. Certainly, the financial market turmoil that spilled over from China to the rest of the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Oct.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in October following increases in the three previous months. We expect total imports by China to rise in the coming months and imports by India to... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read