Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rugbynomics: New Zealand vs Australia It is surprising how the recent economic narrative for Australia and New Zealand is similar to the relative performance of the Wallabies and the All Blacks on the rugby field. If this continues, then... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Kneejerk reaction to rising mortgage rates unlikely The tightening in monetary conditions triggered by the recent rises in mortgage rates by the major banks and the strengthening in the dollar is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Sep.) While the fall in employment in September is unlikely to significantly alter the RBA's view of the economy, we think that a sustained weakening in the labour market will contribute to the RBA cutting... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts will come back onto the RBA’s agenda before long By leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fifth month in a row today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) demonstrated that the recent falls in equity prices have not increased its appetite... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia outperforming other commodity producers While we remain concerned about the outlook for the Australian economy, we think it will continue to outperform other commodity producers such as Canada, Brazil and Norway. Australia’s labour market... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch China concerns unlikely to prompt action Concerns over the health of China’s economy and the fall in domestic equity prices are unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 2.0% at the meeting on Tuesday... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Aug.) Another healthy gain in employment in August, as well as a slight fall in the unemployment rate, continued the strong run of Australia’s labour market. The slowdown in GDP growth this year may still... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar has yet to find a floor Our view that the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia will slow further in the second half of the year suggests that the Australian dollar may yet weaken from its current six-and-a-half-year low of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) Australia's economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, increasing the chances that growth will fall short of the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts for this year and next. Given this, rate cuts... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet have to change tack on rates While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fourth meeting in row suggests that the chances of further rate cuts have faded further, we still... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Glimmer of hope for investment While it is hard to describe any of the recent news on investment in Australia as “good”, the latest figures were not as bad as we had feared. In particular, the plunge in commodity prices does not... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Chances of rate cuts diminishing, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is odds on to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday 1 st September and the chances of further rate cuts are diminishing. A... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Equity price falls don’t materially alter economic outlook While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, we don’t think that the recent sharp falls in equity prices will filter through into much weaker investment or consumption. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
