Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chances of RBA rate cuts fading, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for a third consecutive month appears to diminish the chances that rates will eventually fall to 1.5% as we have been... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pondering potential growth Australia’s potential growth rate has probably slowed to around 2.75% from the 3.00% to 3.25% that the Reserve Bank of Australia has assumed for many years. While this may decrease the Bank’s desire... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lower potential growth wouldn’t rule out rate cuts It looks as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will break this year’s pattern of cutting interest rates at meetings that are followed by the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy by... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in Australia's headline consumer price inflation in the second quarter will not trouble the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), given that it largely reflects a rebound in petrol prices. Instead... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Australia Employment (Jun.) The continued resilience of the labour market in June seems odd given the economic challenges that Australia is facing. As such, we expect that an easing in jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lower dollar won't prevent further RBA rate cuts Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the second month in a row today and did not provide a clear hint that more cuts lie ahead, we still... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wider Australian trade deficit not that bad for Q2 GDP Since most of the recent sharp widening in Australia’s trade deficit is because commodity prices have reduced export values rather than due to outright falls in export volumes, net trade probably... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What would Grexit mean for Australia? The Australian economy would be largely untouched even if the current problems in Europe culminated in a widespread financial crisis and another euro-zone recession. That said, if the Reserve Bank of... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Biding its time The mixed tone of the data released since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) last policy meeting probably isn’t enough to spur the Bank to cut interest rates from 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
