Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus US-style collapse unlikely, but house prices will still fall A US-style collapse in house prices in Australia is unlikely when lending conditions during the good times have not been as loose as in America and Australian banks are better placed to cope with the... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries Our forecasts that interest rates in Australia will remain low for longer than the markets expect while rates in the US will rise further than widely believed are consistent with government bonds in... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Since the labour market remained healthy enough in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t need to hit the panic button and cut interest rates again at the next meeting in June. We still think... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in May appears to be a result of the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates last week, but history suggests this support may only be temporary. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Get used to low underlying inflation Our success in forecasting ahead of everyone else that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates below 2% is mainly because we realised that the legacy of a prolonged period of below... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How Lowe will interest rates go? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecast that underlying inflation will remain below the 2-3% target range until mid-2018 supports our view that interest rates will soon be cut by a further 0.25%... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.) March’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that a boost to GDP growth from net trade probably more than offset an easing in consumption growth in the first quarter. We estimate that... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain While the Budget has been badged as focusing on “jobs and growth”, Treasurer Scott Morrison was clearly thinking about his own job and the probable Federal election on 2nd July when he crafted it... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating Treasurer Scott Morrison will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk in Tuesday’s Federal Budget by revealing a net rise in spending in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the probable election on... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Dollars go from helping to hindering The recent strength of both the Australian and New Zealand dollars means that interest rates will have to fall further than widely expected to solve the twin problems of too slow economic growth and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Fall in inflation could prompt cut to 1.75% We suspect that news of the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The sharp fall in underlying inflation to 1.5% in the first quarter is a game-changer for the Reserve Bank of Australia and supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall from 2.0% now to 1... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
