Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s dilemma laid bare The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Keeping its rate cut promise The recent stronger-than-expected data means that a cut in interest rates at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting on Tuesday 5 th May is no longer a done deal. But we still think the... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing faith in monetary policy? While we agree that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is right to conclude that monetary policy is less effective now than before the global financial crisis, we disagree with suggestions that this... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The stability of the various measures of underlying inflation in the first quarter suggest that price pressures aren't as weak as we thought. Nonetheless, this is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Mar.) Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA misses a chance to weaken the dollar By deciding not to cut interest rates today from the current level of 2.25%, the Reserve Bank of Australia missed an opportunity to achieve the further weakening in the Australian dollar that it so... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does an iron ore price of $50 mean for Australia? While it is certainly not good news, a fall in the iron ore price to US$50 a tonne or below is neither here nor there when compared with the drop from $US130 to $US70 last year. What’s more, the full... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does China’s PMI mean for Australia? Although China’s PMI is a relatively poor indicator of the near-term outlook for Australia’s exports, it does tell us how demand in China is influencing the prices of Australia’s key commodity exports... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why wait? Regardless of whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts interest rates from the current rate of 2.25% to 2.00% at the April or May policy meeting (we slightly favour a move at the meeting on... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Investment outlook weakens While some of the latest data have suggested that economic activity in Australia has accelerated since the turn of the year, the bigger picture is that the economy is still struggling to cope with the... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the US Fed mean for Australia and New Zealand Any rise in government bond yields in Australia and New Zealand triggered by the US Fed taking a step closer to raising rates is likely to be temporary, while any weakening in the exchange rates of... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand is vulnerable to Australian slowdown The hit to New Zealand’s exports from the economic slowdown in Australia is going to be felt at almost the exact same time as the boost to activity from the domestic construction boom starts to fade... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Feb.) The 15,600 increase in Australian employment and slight fall in the unemployment rate last month may be seen by some commentators as a cause for relief. But the bigger picture is that Australia’s... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was that it? The end of the so-called income recession late last year appears to suggest that the direct hit to the Australian economy from the fall in the prices of key commodity exports has already come and gone... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) Australia’s economy picked up by less than expected in the fourth quarter, and worse is likely to be ahead, given that the effects of a significant deterioration in the country’s terms of trade are... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian rates still likely to be cut to 1.5% this year We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision not to follow last month’s rate cut to 2.25% with another reduction today is just a pause in a loosening cycle that will take rates down to 1.5... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
