Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in August rounds off a good week of data for the Australian economy and suggests that GDP growth in the third quarter may have been stronger than the 0.5% q/q... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The better-than-expected rise in retail sales in August will go some way to allaying growing concerns, such as those highlighted by the RBA yesterday, that the easing in consumption growth in the... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, same story By leaving interest rates at 1.5% and the policy statement mostly unchanged at his first meeting as Governor, Philip Lowe showed he is cut from much the same cloth as his predecessor. But while Lowe... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The envy of the advanced world The growth rates enjoyed by Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter continue to be the envy of most advanced nations. The 3.3% and 3.6% respective rises in GDP over the last year were much... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates on hold, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy meeting on Tuesday 4 th October will be the first led by the new Governor, Philip Lowe, but that’s the only thing we expect to change. Interest rates... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The structural decline in investment The structural decline of the manufacturing sector means that the long-awaited transition from mining investment towards non-mining business investment may never happen to the extent that most people... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks around our dollar forecasts Recent events have made our forecast that both the Australian and New Zealand dollars will weaken to around US$0.65 next year look aggressive. But while the risks to those forecasts lie on the upside... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q2) The ABS measure of house prices supports other evidence showing that the housing market has found a new lease of life. That said, the market is not as strong as widely believed and it’s more likely to... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tweaks its policy agreement Philip Lowe’s first job as RBA Governor has been to emphasise the medium-term nature of the 2-3% inflation target and highlight how the RBA juggles this with its often conflicting objective of... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie? The impressive performance of New Zealand’s economy in the second quarter has contributed to the strengthening in the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Australian dollar. Our economic... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) After adjusting the data to strip out the temporary boost from the Census, we estimate that employment fell by around 14,000 in August. While we aren’t too concerned about the outlook for employment... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.) September’s Westpac measure of consumer confidence shows that the rise in August was sustained. This should help to calm concerns about the health of the household sector following the slowdown in... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The secret fiscal stimulus An unusual surge in public demand drove the decent rise in GDP in Australia in the second quarter. However, with this support from the public sector unlikely to be sustained and few signs that other... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul.) Even though the international trade deficit narrowed in July, net exports are still on course to remain a drag on real GDP growth in the third quarter. The external sector could really do with the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
