Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Four reasons why a recession remains unlikely The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter has raised the possibility that the first recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output, in 25 years has begun. But while the GDP data... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter is unlikely to mark the start of a recession as GDP will probably rebound in the fourth quarter. Even so, it highlights that the economy is not strong... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA looks through possible fall in Q3 GDP After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia remained fairly optimistic on the outlook for activity even though the economy may have contracted in the third... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Brace yourself for GDP If the Australian economy did indeed stagnate or contract in the third quarter, it needs to be seen in the context of the unusual strength in the previous two quarters. This means there’s probably no... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October will be a welcome sight for retailers in the lead up to the all-important Christmas spending period and suggests that the probable slowdown... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The weak third-quarter private capital expenditure survey adds to other evidence that suggests the economy may not have grown at all in the third quarter. It also confirms that the transition towards... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a major slowdown happening right under our noses? It’s now possible that the Australian economy didn’t grow at all in the third quarter. It may even have contracted. That would be hard to ignore, especially when jobs growth has slumped to a two-year... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack New Zealand trumps Australia The recent earthquake in New Zealand may put a small dent in activity in the near-term, but it won’t prevent the economy from growing by around 3.5% next year. In fact, the extra boost to activity... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA Financial markets look to have jumped the gun by concluding that the chance of a further interest rate cut in Australia has all but vanished. We think that the weak outlook for wage growth may yet... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) While employment increased in October for the first time since July, revisions to September’s figures meant that the annual rate of employment growth fell to a two-year low of 0.9% y/y, which will do... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar? While Trump’s election win is still causing some uncertainty in financial markets, attention in New Zealand has swiftly moved to the kiwi dollar following comments by Governor Wheeler that the RBNZ... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Market fallout from President Trump may not last long The now-probable election of Donald Trump as US President will continue to send shockwaves through the financial markets for a while yet. But we suspect it won’t be long before the bulk of these moves... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite the modest fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in November, confidence levels suggest that any slowdown in consumption growth won’t be too severe. More worryingly, the rise in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
