Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks around our dollar forecasts Recent events have made our forecast that both the Australian and New Zealand dollars will weaken to around US$0.65 next year look aggressive. But while the risks to those forecasts lie on the upside... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q2) The ABS measure of house prices supports other evidence showing that the housing market has found a new lease of life. That said, the market is not as strong as widely believed and it’s more likely to... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tweaks its policy agreement Philip Lowe’s first job as RBA Governor has been to emphasise the medium-term nature of the 2-3% inflation target and highlight how the RBA juggles this with its often conflicting objective of... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie? The impressive performance of New Zealand’s economy in the second quarter has contributed to the strengthening in the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Australian dollar. Our economic... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) After adjusting the data to strip out the temporary boost from the Census, we estimate that employment fell by around 14,000 in August. While we aren’t too concerned about the outlook for employment... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.) September’s Westpac measure of consumer confidence shows that the rise in August was sustained. This should help to calm concerns about the health of the household sector following the slowdown in... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The secret fiscal stimulus An unusual surge in public demand drove the decent rise in GDP in Australia in the second quarter. However, with this support from the public sector unlikely to be sustained and few signs that other... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul.) Even though the international trade deficit narrowed in July, net exports are still on course to remain a drag on real GDP growth in the third quarter. The external sector could really do with the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) The return of the Australian economy in the second quarter to the growth rates seen before the end of the mining boom relieves some of the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again, at least in... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA thinks it’s done enough The policy statement released alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.5% today provides no hint that another rate cut is around the corner. If the inflation... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing auction rates provide only part of the picture Auction clearance rates are a timely and useful barometer of housing activity, but since they capture less than a third of all sales they don’t provide a full picture. While Australia’s housing market... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s weaker-than-expected retail sales figures mean that even if spending were to gather momentum in the remainder of the third quarter, real consumption growth will struggle to match the probable 0... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q2) The private capital expenditure survey for the second quarter shows that the investment transition is taking place slowly. Together with the stagnation in retail sales in July, we believe that GDP... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year Glenn Stevens is unlikely to end his decade as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia with a bang, as interest rates will almost certainly be left at 1.5% at his last policy meeting on Tuesday 6th... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household sector unlikely to offset weakness elsewhere Last week’s news that consumer confidence in Australia surged to a three year high provided an encouraging signal about the health of the household sector. However, while we expect consumption growth... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
