Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the strength of Australia’s labour market last? The Australian labour market appears to be coping surprisingly well with the end of the mining boom. However, we suspect that the recent data overstate the strength of the labour market. Moreover, if... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption growth set to slow While consumption growth in Australia held up well in the first quarter, there is little chance that an increase in household spending will prevent the economy from slowing. Employment and wage growth... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (May.) The 42,000 gain in Australian employment in May will no doubt add to claims that Australia’s economy has weathered the end of the mining boom well. However, the reading almost certainly exaggerates... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia's economy grew at a very healthy rate in the first quarter, which will probably prompt some suggestions that it has weathered last year's fall in commodity prices well. We think the worst is... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakening outlook will prompt RBA to act again We suspect that today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% is nothing more than a pause in the loosening cycle that could yet result in rates... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA presses pause, not stop While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is highly likely to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2 nd June, we think it will cut rates further later this year. Our... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Response – Economy hung out to dry The 2015-16 Budget will quash any talk of a credit rating downgrade, but won’t give the economy a much-needed helping hand. The decision by Treasurer Joe Hockey not reduce the coming fiscal squeeze... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Apr.) The 2,900 drop in Australian employment in April brought to an end a strong run for the country's labour market and pushed up the unemployment rate. Although we would be wary of reading too much into... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 2% won’t be the floor The cut in interest rates to a new record low of 2.00%, from 2.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today is unlikely to be the last in this cycle. Our forecast that both GDP growth... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s dilemma laid bare The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Keeping its rate cut promise The recent stronger-than-expected data means that a cut in interest rates at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting on Tuesday 5 th May is no longer a done deal. But we still think the... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing faith in monetary policy? While we agree that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is right to conclude that monetary policy is less effective now than before the global financial crisis, we disagree with suggestions that this... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The stability of the various measures of underlying inflation in the first quarter suggest that price pressures aren't as weak as we thought. Nonetheless, this is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
