Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025)

Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026

The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour...

10th December 2025 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will lift rates to 4.10% by mid-2026

The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be a rate hike as soon as February.

9th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025)

The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike.

9th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine?

The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own.

5th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting

The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back...

5th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Oct. 25)

The surge in household spending in October confirms our view that the RBA won’t cut rates any further. If anything, the risk is that the Bank will feel compelled to tighten policy before long.

4th December 2025 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future

With inflation showing signs of persistence, activity recovering, and the labour market holding its own, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to deliver a hawkish hold at its meeting next week...

3rd December 2025 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q3 2025)

Although activity lost a bit of momentum last quarter, we suspect growth will hover at around its trend rate in the year ahead. The upshot is that, although the RBA won’t cut rates any further, we...

3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

New Simandou supply will sink iron ore prices

Against the backdrop of weakening demand, the ramp-up in iron ore supply from the Simandou mine in Guinea is a key driver of our below-consensus view that iron ore prices will fall sharply over the...

2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read

APAC Commercial Property Outlook

Narrow yield spreads to limit size and speed of the recovery

Asia-Pacific property faces a slow, uneven recovery as high risk-free rates and weak growth limit investment demand and therefore, prospects for yield-driven capital gains. Spreads over risk-free...

2nd December 2025 · 18 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Are first-time buyers fuelling the house prices rally?

The less stringent criteria for accessing the government’s support scheme for first-time home buyers hasn’t noticeably boosted overall housing demand. Indeed, the key constraint remains extremely...

1st December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australian housing can’t buck its affordability problem

Australia's house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage...

1st December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA is done cutting rates this cycle

With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further...

28th November 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025)

With inflationary pressures continuing to strengthen at the start of the quarter, there is little chance that rate cuts will be on the RBA’s agenda anytime soon.

26th November 2025 · 2 mins read