Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia outperforming other commodity producers While we remain concerned about the outlook for the Australian economy, we think it will continue to outperform other commodity producers such as Canada, Brazil and Norway. Australia’s labour market... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Another step on the way down to rates of 2.0% The most important part of today’s policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not the third consecutive 0.25% cut in interest rates, to 2.75%, but the Bank’s growing acceptance that a... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Heading down to 2% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is all but guaranteed to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third meeting in a row, from 3.00% to 2.75%, on Thursday 10th September. We wouldn’t completely rule... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Glimmer of hope for investment While it is hard to describe any of the recent news on investment in Australia as “good”, the latest figures were not as bad as we had feared. In particular, the plunge in commodity prices does not... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Judging the health of New Zealand’s economy Our new Capital Economics New Zealand Activity Proxy (CE NZAP) provides a timely guide to changes in economic activity in New Zealand well ahead of the official GDP data and is a useful barometer of... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pondering potential growth Australia’s potential growth rate has probably slowed to around 2.75% from the 3.00% to 3.25% that the Reserve Bank of Australia has assumed for many years. While this may decrease the Bank’s desire... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading towards 2% The 0.25% reduction in interest rates, to 3.00% from 3.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today is the second in a series of cuts that we think could take interest rates all the way... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 0.5% cut likely next step towards a new record low of 2.0% In a change to our previous forecast, we now expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates by 0.5%, to 2.75%, at the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 23rd July and... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
