Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a major slowdown happening right under our noses? It’s now possible that the Australian economy didn’t grow at all in the third quarter. It may even have contracted. That would be hard to ignore, especially when jobs growth has slumped to a two-year... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack New Zealand trumps Australia The recent earthquake in New Zealand may put a small dent in activity in the near-term, but it won’t prevent the economy from growing by around 3.5% next year. In fact, the extra boost to activity... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA Financial markets look to have jumped the gun by concluding that the chance of a further interest rate cut in Australia has all but vanished. We think that the weak outlook for wage growth may yet... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar? While Trump’s election win is still causing some uncertainty in financial markets, attention in New Zealand has swiftly moved to the kiwi dollar following comments by Governor Wheeler that the RBNZ... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ thinks it has done enough The Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that business carries on as usual with Trump as US President as today it met its previous pledge to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75%. What’s more... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Market fallout from President Trump may not last long The now-probable election of Donald Trump as US President will continue to send shockwaves through the financial markets for a while yet. But we suspect it won’t be long before the bulk of these moves... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 1.75% may not be the floor We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will follow through on its commitment for further policy easing by cutting interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 10 th... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) While employment growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, wage growth remained worryingly weak. This will do little to allay the RBNZ’s concerns about the inflation outlook and as a... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Commodity prices turning into a tailwind The recent rise in the prices of some key commodity exports will go some way to boosting the national income of both Australia and New Zealand. The surge in the price of coal to a three-and-a-half... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The fall in CPI inflation to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second quarter is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and means the Bank will follow through on its suggestion that interest rates... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for bond yields? While the recent leap in bond yields in Australia has been larger than the rise in the US, we still believe that over the next couple of years bonds in Australia will outperform those in the US... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
