Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The anatomy of the record trade surplus The roots of the swing in Australia’s international trade balance from a record deficit at the end of 2015 to a record surplus in December 2016 lie firmly in the huge rise in commodity prices rather... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rate rises a long way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will undoubtedly keep rates on hold at 1.75% at its meeting on Thursday 9 th February, but in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement we suspect it will revise up... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) While employment growth remained decent in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate jumped back above 5.0%. This won’t worry the RBNZ too much, but the... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in both headline and core CPI inflation in the fourth quarter is enough to prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates further, but it’s not enough to prompt it to raise interest rates... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much will housing help? After contributing 0.5 percentage points to the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia in each of the past two years, it looks as though dwellings investment will add almost nothing to growth this... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes and risks for 2017 The range of possible economic outcomes for next year are wider than usual and it is possible that 2017 proves to be a sweet spot for both Australia and New Zealand. But it seems more likely that a... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The further strengthening in economic growth in the third quarter increases the chances that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t need to cut interest rates further. But it is probably too soon to... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rising risk of recession The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter and the weak tone of October’s international trade data have raised the chances that Australia will experience its first recession in 25 years. We wouldn... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AAA – Going, going, gone? Even if the ratings agencies were to take away Australia’s AAA credit rating immediately after the publication of the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Monday, which we suspect will reveal that... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What we know about fourth-quarter GDP The fall in GDP in the third quarter means that the data for the fourth quarter will determine whether or not Australia succumbs to its first recession in 25 years. We think it will escape, but only... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Brace yourself for GDP If the Australian economy did indeed stagnate or contract in the third quarter, it needs to be seen in the context of the unusual strength in the previous two quarters. This means there’s probably no... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
