Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The impressive rebound in GDP growth in the third quarter does not mean that New Zealand is out of the woods. With the full hit from the plunge in dairy prices still to be felt, growth will be weaker... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling further away from fiscal surplus In the upcoming fiscal update, the Australian Treasurer is going to have to admit that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years is going to be some $30bn bigger than expected in May’s... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: 2.5% won’t be the floor After cutting interest rates today from 2.75% back to the record low of 2.50% seen during the Global Financial Crisis, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sent a strong signal that it doesn’t think rates... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Net exports can’t carry the economy for long The Australian economy has continued to perform reasonably well given the very testing set of circumstances and has comfortably outperformed other commodity producers. But we don’t expect GDP growth... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Better data not enough to prevent cut to 2.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut interest rates by 0.25%, from 2.75% to 2.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th December. What’s more, and despite the release of some positive... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rebound in activity will be short-lived Although GDP growth probably rebounded in the third quarter, New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet as the full impact of the collapse in the dairy price is still working its way through... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The stark deterioration in labour market conditions in New Zealand in the third quarter pretty much guarantees that the RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% at the meeting in December, from 2.75% now. What's... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Worrying fall in underlying inflation The further fall in underlying inflation in Australia in the third quarter could be the start of a period of persistently low inflation that plays a role in prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rugbynomics: New Zealand vs Australia It is surprising how the recent economic narrative for Australia and New Zealand is similar to the relative performance of the Wallabies and the All Blacks on the rugby field. If this continues, then... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ has more work to do Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave interest rates at 2.75% is just a pause in a loosening cycle that we believe will end with rates falling to 2.00%. And the news that... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Pausing for breath Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will probably leave interest rates on hold at 2.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 29 th October, this will just be a pause in the loosening cycle... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI (Q3) The CPI data for the third quarter were not weak enough to make a rate cut at the RBNZ's policy meeting in late October a certainty. But with the full effects of the recent slowdown in economic growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the New Zealand dollar still overvalued? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to update its estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will show that the New... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
