Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable Despite leaving interest rates at 2.25% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still hinted that they may fall to 2.0% before long. What’s more, we still think there’s a chance that rates may have to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly First quarter good, second quarter not so good The leap in GDP in Australia in the first quarter doesn’t significantly alter the outlook for underlying inflation, especially if we are right in thinking that economic growth will drop back below the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ is not done yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% at its next policy meeting on Thursday 9th June. Although we don’t expect the RBNZ to signal this month... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stuck in transition It always seemed unlikely to us that non-mining investment would seamlessly fill the hole left by the plunge in mining investment. This is especially the case when the economy is saddled with a large... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries Our forecasts that interest rates in Australia will remain low for longer than the markets expect while rates in the US will rise further than widely believed are consistent with government bonds in... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Get used to low underlying inflation Our success in forecasting ahead of everyone else that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates below 2% is mainly because we realised that the legacy of a prolonged period of below... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) The sharper-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in the first quarter reversed half of the large decline at the end of last year and suggests that the previous improvement was more a mirage... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating Treasurer Scott Morrison will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk in Tuesday’s Federal Budget by revealing a net rise in spending in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the probable election on... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Dollars go from helping to hindering The recent strength of both the Australian and New Zealand dollars means that interest rates will have to fall further than widely expected to solve the twin problems of too slow economic growth and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rates will reach a floor of 1.75% in New Zealand We don’t believe that the slightly more positive tone of the policy statement released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold at 2.25% today will prevent the Bank from... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may have to fall to 1.75% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00% at the meeting in early June rather than at the meeting on Thursday 28th April, although we wouldn’t completely rule... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1) The rebound in CPI inflation in the first quarter increases the chances that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates to 2.0% at next week’s policy meeting and will instead wait until the meeting in June. By... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
