RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ won’t be perturbed by the weak GDP figures Although the first-quarter GDP growth figures were notably weaker than the RBNZ had expected, the Bank will almost certainly keep the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 1.75% at its monetary policy... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A year of two halves The latest evidence suggests that the Australian economy entered a soft patch in the first half of the year, with the quarterly rate of GDP growth perhaps averaging only 0.3%. As some of this weakness... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Household sector is starting to falter There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) The further pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in March means it is now consistent with the 0.4% q/q increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter being followed by a much more respectable rise of... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Infrastructure: Don’t believe the hype Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison made a big song and dance about new infrastructure spending in the Federal Budget. But while he shouldn’t be considered a public enemy as some new infrastructure... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ wary of raising interest rates too soon The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% today and signal that it doesn’t expect to raise rates until late 2019 supports our view that the financial markets have got... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An infrastructure Budget would be good for the economy We’re not too keen on the plans of the Australian Treasurer to distinguish “good” debt from “bad” debt in the Federal Budget on Tuesday, but we do like the sound of a budget that is expected to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ’s rate projections may reflect upturn in inflation While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 11 th May, in light of the stronger-than-anticipated first... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) While employment growth strengthened in the first quarter and the unemployment rate dropped back below 5.0%, wage growth remained stubbornly low. We believe that wage growth will remained fairly muted... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The inflation worm has turned The recent rises in underlying inflation suggest that the period of extremely low inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has come to an end. Underlying inflation, which excludes the temporary... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) indicates that the slowdown in GDP growth at the end of last year was temporary. In fact, February’s NZAP is consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth, from 0.4% q... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning (a bit) hawkish on New Zealand The period of ultra-low inflation in New Zealand is well and truly over. While we still believe that the financial markets are too hawkish in expecting the official cash rate to start rising this year... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The further strengthening in underlying price pressures in the first quarter has increased the chances that the RBNZ will raise interest rates earlier than we had been expecting. Both we and the RBNZ... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the surge in employment a sign of things to come? We doubt that the surge in Australian employment in March will mark the beginning of a sustained rebound in employment growth. Indeed, a deeper dive into the latest employment trends in different... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
