Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand? Since the sharp declines in inflation expectations were the main reason why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% in March, future moves in inflation expectations will have a big... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner? We can’t rule it out completely, but recent suggestions that Australia is the second most likely country in the world to suffer a debt crisis and recession in the next one to three years seem... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recent resurgence in housing won’t last The resurgence in Australia’s housing market at the start of this year is already looking a bit tired. The delayed impact on activity from last year’s rises in mortgage rates, the recent deterioration... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing market running out of puff More worrying than the 0.5% q/q seasonally adjusted fall in the ABS measure of Australian house prices in the fourth quarter of last year (+0.2% q/q unadjusted) is that the subsequent rebound is... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4) The surprisingly strong rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of last year won’t prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% in the coming months, although it does make it a little... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia? The recent interest rate cut in New Zealand and the dovish comments by the RBNZ now mean it is easy to imagine a scenario where interest rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia. That would... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Growing chance that rates in New Zealand fall below 2.0% Today’s 0.25% cut in interest rates in New Zealand, to 2.25% from 2.50%, will have been a surprise to most analysts and the financial markets. But as early as July last year we forecast that rates... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households help Australia outperform its peers Even though it has faced a very testing set of circumstances, Australia has continued to outperform most of its peers and hasn’t done too bad by its own standards either. A lot of the credit needs to... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rising chance of a rate cut Although we suspect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will want to keep its powder dry for a little longer, there’s a real chance it will surprise the markets and cut interest rates by 0.25% at the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing the currency war? While it is a bit dramatic to suggest that a global currency war is underway, the falls in interest rate expectations in overseas markets relative to those at home explains why the Australian dollar... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Equities won’t drag the economy down The slump in equity prices since the turn of the year is unlikely to be followed by a similar slump in economic growth in Australia, especially now that equity prices are rebounding. Over the past 20... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was the start of the year really that bad? With equity prices still more than 10% below last year’s highs, employment having contracted for two months in a row and leading economic indices slumping, a visitor from Mars would be forgiven for... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Coping well with the financial market malaise The resilience of both business and consumer confidence in Australia suggests that the latest sharp falls in equity prices are unlikely to lead to much weaker investment or consumption. This is mainly... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Spending boost from net migration not departing just yet The record level of net migration appears to explain around half of the rise in real consumption in New Zealand in the past two years. If net migration slows steadily as is widely expected, then this... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
