Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lies, damned lies and labour market statistics? At least some of the startling fall in the unemployment rate in New Zealand in the fourth quarter of last year, from 6.0% to 5.3%, appears genuine. As such, we no longer think that the unemployment... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Market turmoil not a major economic threat…yet The sharp falls in equity prices since the turn of the year are unlikely to prompt households or businesses to rein in their spending. In fact, when set against some measures of domestic activity, it... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) The astonishing plunge in the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of last year, to a six-year low of 5.3% from 6.0% in the third quarter, decreases the chances that the RBNZ will reduce interest... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Mixed outlook for the major commodity currencies The recovery in commodity prices over the last week or so has eased the selling pressure on the dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada since the start of the year. However, we wouldn’t be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tradables inflation is only half the story It’s odd that the financial markets placed so much emphasis on the rise in Australia’s tradables inflation rate in the fourth quarter of last year when this was more than offset by a fall in non... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ opens door to more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hint that the weakening outlook for inflation means that interest rates may have to be reduced this year from the current rate of 2.5% supports our long-held view... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australia join New Zealand in the near-deflation club? The higher starting point means that inflation in Australia is unlikely to fall close to zero, as it has done in New Zealand. That said, underlying or “core” inflation in Australia may soon follow in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bank starts contemplating more rate cuts While recent events have increased the chances that interest rates will be cut from 2.5% now to 2.0%, as we have been expecting for some time, we think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The fall in CPI inflation to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, from 0.4% in the third quarter, could prove to be a game-changer for the RBNZ as it leaves the economy uncomfortably close to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling petrol prices offer some comfort The latest falls in equity and commodity prices have not dealt a big blow to the Australian economy, especially when lower petrol prices are boosting households’ real incomes. Nonetheless, should... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) The recent improvement in Australia’s labour market was maintained in December, which should go some way to relieving the current downward pressure on equity prices and the Australian dollar. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China concerns wash away New Year cheer The first week of the new year has set the tone for what we think will be another disappointing year for Australia. While we are not too concerned by the latest developments in China, there is a clear... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
