Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Australia won’t benefit much from global recovery The latest data suggest that we are right to be more downbeat than most on the outlook for Australia this year but more upbeat than most on the prospects for New Zealand. While both economies will... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has the weakening in retail spending got further to run? The outright fall in retail sales values in February raises fresh concerns about the health of the retail sector. Admittedly, some of the recent weakness is due to temporary factors. But there are... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Banks and their net interest margins Although Australian banks will probably soon be hit by more stringent mortgage lending rules, they can take some comfort from an interest rate environment that will probably be fairly favourable over... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keen for the dollar to weaken further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used today’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% to emphasise once again that rates won’t be raised either this year or next. The financial markets are slowly... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Markets are overestimating the chance of rate hikes next year While there is a consensus among economists and financial markets alike that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep rates on hold at 1.75% when it meets next Thursday 23 rd March, we believe that... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2016) While GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was weaker than most had expected, this was largely the result of temporary factors and as such we expect growth in New Zealand to bounce back early... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ not planning to raise rates until late 2019 While leaving interest rates on hold at 1.75% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down. But since we largely agree with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
