Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: further tightening on the cards The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) hiked interest rates today, as expected. But with the government at loggerheads with the central bank, talks with the IMF seemingly having broken down and fresh... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sliding back into recession The past month has brought further evidence – if any were needed – that Emerging Europe will not escape unscathed from the gathering storm in the euro-zone. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the region’s most... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s underlying inflation still weak On the face of it at least, the latest rise in inflation in Central Europe is deeply worrying, not least since it has come against a backdrop of slowing growth. But a closer look at the data reveals... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: banking squeeze intensifies amidst political unrest The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has cut the amount of funds it provides via its overnight repo auctions to the lowest level in almost two months in an attempt to shore up the ruble against a backdrop... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish GDP: export boost masks weaker domestic demand Today’s Q3 GDP data surprised on the upside but, as we expected, domestic demand slowed much more sharply than the headline GDP growth rate. The key point though, is that today’s data do not yet... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: the slowdown has started Turkish Q3 GDP data, due next week, are likely to show that the economy slowed to around 5.5% on an annual basis and contracted over the quarter on the back of weaker domestic demand. But, crucially... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro crisis to trigger recessions further east The deepening turmoil in the euro-zone is likely to drag large parts of Emerging Europe into recession over the next year. Financial sector vulnerabilities mean that recession risks are greatest in... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Warsaw office rents vulnerable to a renewed euro-zone recession? The strength of Warsaw’s office occupier market over the past couple of years suggests that the large and increasingly speculative development pipeline is not a risk to the rental outlook. However, a... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Putin’s popularity trigger reform? The blow to United Russia in the parliamentary elections means that Putin’s absolute control over Russian politics has weakened. The question now is whether this can act as a trigger for reform as Mr... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing sliding into recession November’s manufacturing PMI data brought further evidence – if any was needed – that the more open economies in Emerging Europe are following their Western European neighbours into recession. Even... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: less vulnerable, but not immune Polish growth surprised on the upside in Q3, reinforcing the view that the economy is relatively well placed to weather the storm brewing in the euro-zone. But while Poland is less vulnerable to a... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack European property market is running out of bright spots Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rate hike fails to impress the currency markets If this afternoon’s 50bps hike in Hungarian interest rates was intended to shore up the forint, the move has flopped. But in truth it was always likely that a far larger increase would be needed to... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
