Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Returns set to weaken in the year ahead If we are right that the euro-zone economy will continue to weaken, the drag on economic activity in non-euro-zone European economies is likely to intensify. As a result, occupier markets in non-euro... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export improvement so far limited to Asia There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle has much further to run Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% suggests that policymakers are finally starting to acknowledge that the big threat to the economy comes from... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish upgrade unlikely to be a game changer for markets Today’s decision by Fitch to raise Turkey’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade is likely to have only a limited impact on financial markets since the move seems to have already been priced in... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs improve, but EM manufacturing growth still sluggish The PMI data released across the emerging world over the past few days showed some signs of improvement, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers are still struggling – particularly in the smaller... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish stock market rally looks overdone Turkish equities have risen by over 40% since the start of the year, but we think that macroeconomic frailties and weaker global risk appetite could bring this rally to an abrupt end. 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic moves to the zero bound After today’s decision to cut interest rates all the way to the zero bound, we expect the Czech National Bank to move into the realms of unconventional monetary policy measures next year. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing still in recession The latest PMIs show that manufacturing in the highly open economies of Central Europe remains in recession due in large part to falling external demand. By contrast, the Turkish PMI data provide... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle running out of room Hungary continued to cut interest rates today, but financial vulnerabilities and a lack of progress towards an IMF deal mean that there is limited room for further easing. Accordingly, we don’t think... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are commercial property yields in Russia set to rise? To date, despite a sharp drop in investment volumes and growing evidence of a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, property yields in Moscow have not risen as we anticipated. But while a case can be made... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Yanukovich’s victory is bad news for Ukraine With 70% of the vote now counted, Ukraine’s ruling coalition looks likely to maintain its majority in parliament (although by a dangerously thin margin). The good news is that the election has so far... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
