Emerging Europe Economics Update Financing risks on the rise in Ukraine A hefty external financing requirement is casting a long cloud over the economic outlook for Ukraine. With limited access to private capital, the government will soon have no other option but to turn... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s Medium-Term Programme offers little comfort While Turkey’s Medium-Term Programme (MTP) for 2012-14, unveiled today, contains some movement towards fiscal tightening, we think that it is a case of too little too late. The MTP is based on overly... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the ruble? Russian markets have been hit hard during the recent financial market turmoil: the RTS equity index was down by 18% in September and the ruble lost 10% against the dollar. While the currency and... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe's external financing risks still high The view that Emerging Europe is not as vulnerable to an external financing crisis as in 2008/09 appears misplaced. Although current account deficits have, in most cases, narrowed sharply, total... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish elections reassuring but slowdown ahead Victory for the governing Civic Platform Party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Poland will be welcomed as a sign of business as usual by the markets. But with external headwinds building and... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary FX debt plan amounts to backdoor default Fresh concerns over the health of the Hungarian banking system have risen following the government’s policy to allow households to repay FX mortgages at preferential exchange rates. Our best estimate... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish economy now more vulnerable to a euro-zone slump With elections due on Sunday, the campaign of the governing Civic Platform party has understandably focussed on its economic credentials. After all, Poland was the only country in the EU to avoid... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing stalling September’s PMI surveys confirmed that manufacturing growth across the region has stalled. With export-led industry being the main (and in some cases only) driver of growth, this adds further weight... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets battered as euro-crisis deepens The past couple of days have seen a rebound in the region’s financial markets, but this has reversed only a fraction of the losses seen over the past month. Most equity markets, for example, are still... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowing GDP growth unlikely to derail Polish investment market revival Our sub-consensus view that Polish GDP growth will slow to about 2.5%y/y in 2012 might suggest that the recent surge in commercial property investment activity could lose momentum. However, even if... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of President Putin This weekend’s news that current President Medvedev will step aside to allow Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency at next year’s elections has raised hopes that lower political uncertainty will... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The big picture on emerging market currencies The recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar do not reflect fundamental shifts in exchange rate policy in these countries. Instead the main driver is renewed demand... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Fall of the Wall The vast bulk of growth in Emerging Europe since the fall of communism can be explained by the better allocation of resources that has resulted from the transition from central planning to a market... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Hungarian retail yields fallen too far? The recovery in Hungary has disappointed in recent months and economic growth is likely to remain lacklustre in 2012 and 2013. That represents a downside risk for commercial property, but especially... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
