Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy gains momentum September’s activity data suggest that Russia is heading for a strong economic performance in the second half of 2011. What’s more, with both the consumer sector and industry picking up, growth looks... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about inflation in Hungary? The outlook for inflation in Hungary is not as bad as recent developments suggest, but the plunging forint may still force the National Bank into a defensive rate hike within the next three months. 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Here comes the slowdown The deepening crisis in the euro-zone reinforces our view that growth in Emerging Europe will slow by more than most expect over the next year. We expect the region’s economy as a whole to expand by... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia prepares for global downturn Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to lower its overnight repo rate and at the same time raise its overnight deposit rate is an attempt to wrest back control over market interest... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey’s commercial property market heading for another downturn? Q2 GDP data from Turkey look pretty encouraging. Yet we think that the economy is on track for a hard landing next year. This alone does not alter our views on the prospects for commercial property... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 growth strong, but recession threat mounting On the face of it, Turkish Q2 GDP data – which surprised on the upside – is positive news. However, it merely confirms our view that the Turkish economy is overheating and it is now more likely than... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production: slump on the horizon July’s Industrial production data, although not as bad as feared, were poor nonetheless and confirmed that growth is weakening across Central and Eastern Europe. What’s more, the disappointing PMIs... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Polish interest rates likely to be down The Polish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold comes as little surprise given the recent signs of a domestic slowdown and lower demand from abroad. With inflation set to ease... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s budget black hole filled only temporarily The Hungarian government yesterday afternoon announced measures to raise an extra HUF 100bn in revenues as lower than expected growth reduced the chances of meeting the budget target. The government... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack CEE markets still outperforming, but outlook is cloudy In contrast to Western European property markets, investment volumes in CEE have continued to rise. But the latest batch of disappointing economic data from Emerging Europe suggests that investor... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s current account deficit: recession in the making? Turkey’s economy looks increasingly in danger of going from boom to bust. Rapid growth in domestic demand has led to a surge in imports and a widening current account deficit that, in light of recent... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More gloomy news on regional manufacturing August’s PMI surveys brought further evidence – if any were needed – that industry in Central and Eastern Europe is slowing sharply. Given that this has been the main driver of growth over the past... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Minimal threat of office supply shortages in CEE The rapidly slowing trend in CEE office completion volumes seen over the past couple of years looks set to be extended next year. But this does not imply that the region will face a shortage of office... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland GDP growth remains robust, but for how long? Polish growth in Q2 remained relatively robust but we expect it to slow significantly in 2012 and 2013 to a below-consensus 3% y/y as external headwinds build. Having front-loaded monetary tightening... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
