Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF impasse pushes Ukraine closer to the edge News that an IMF mission left Kiev late on Friday without approving the resumption of Ukraine’s $15bn programme has pushed the country a step closer to an external funding crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fresh recession in Hungary set to undermine rental values We have recently downgraded our forecasts for the Hungarian economy and now expect GDP to contract by about 0.5% in 2012. This is unlikely to drive a renewed slump in commercial property rental values... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside surprise from PMIs, but industry still slowing October’s manufacturing PMI data came in stronger than expected in most of Emerging Europe. Nevertheless, this does not hide the fact that hard data are weakening. On a quarterly basis, it appears... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: WTO gains depend on wider economic reform After nearly 20 years of negotiations, Russia now appears to be on the cusp of joining the WTO. But while in theory at least WTO membership could bring major economic benefits, in practice these will... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rebound, but growth slowing Financial markets in Emerging Europe have rebounded following this summer’s turmoil. Equity markets (Turkey aside) have rallied by around 8% or more this month, while the region’s currencies have... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Central Bank tightens the screw Today’s move by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its 7-day repo auction and force banks to instead access finance via its overnight window amounts to a backdoor interest rate hike of as much as... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's Central Bank running out of options? Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) is in a bind. While recent liquidity shortages in the banking sector and an improved outlook for inflation argue in favour of monetary easing, the weak ruble and persistent... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe markets rally despite slide towards recession The rally in financial markets in Central Europe over the past few weeks is all the more notable since it has taken place against a backdrop of worsening economic data. We expect growth in Poland and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update End is in sight for the rally in Moscow property yields Recent declines in Moscow commercial property yields have been steeper than we had expected. Even so, there are now signs that investment demand is softening. If we are right that the economy will... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for manoeuvre Although financial markets have recovered a little this month, the activity data from the region has continued to soften. Yet in pretty much every country, policymakers have less scope to stimulate... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: CBRT returns to orthodoxy Although the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) kept the benchmark repo rate on hold, today’s MPC meeting marked a clear shift in its stance. Policymakers are no longer in easing mood are moving instead... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, but slowdown on the horizon The raft of activity data for September released earlier today allow us to firm up our forecast for Russian growth in the third quarter. The good news is that the economy appears to have expanded at a... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Czech retail property remain in vogue? Record levels of commercial property investment in the Czech Republic in Q3 2011 were driven by the retail sector. But retail property in the Czech Republic is starting to look expensive compared to... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
