Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty threatens Romania's splendid isolation It goes without saying that today’s resignation of the Romanian Prime Minister, Emil Boc, in response to growing public discontent with austerity, is likely to weigh heavily on the country’s financial... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish boom hits the buffers December’s trade data provide the clearest evidence yet that the boom in Turkish domestic demand seen over the past couple of years has come to an abrupt halt. 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates on hold, looser policy on the cards Currency concerns remain the key driver of interest rate decisions in Emerging Europe. The recent stability of the leu provided scope for Romanian policymakers to cut rates today. But in the Czech... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian growth increasingly dependent on high oil prices Today’s estimate of 2011 GDP growth for Russia surprised on the upside, but the underlying data reveal a growing reliance on high oil prices to sustain the current rate of expansion. We continue to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: still the poster child for austerity? News that Lithuania’s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year dents the Baltic States’ image as a poster child for austerity as a means of restoring competitiveness and repairing balance... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: impressive end to 2011, but a slowdown ahead Russia’s economy appears to have ended 2011 on a high note. Our estimates suggest that GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 – a slight improvement on 4.8% y/y in Q3. Even so, a combination of falling oil prices... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth: losing some steam Although today’s preliminary estimate of 2011 GDP growth surprised on the upside, the Polish economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year. Poland is better placed than its neighbours to weather... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Falling capital values to dent total returns Events in the euro-zone will act as a drag on property markets throughout Europe. As a result, most non-euro-zone commercial property markets will suffer some renewed falls in capital values this year... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of Turkish easing looks premature Despite the recent rally in the lira and signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is starting to narrow, the reduction in effective interest rates seen over the past few weeks is likely to prove... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
