Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Polish outperformance

The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible...

16th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Structural boost outweighing cyclical drag on exports

EM goods export growth has accelerated over the past year despite a slowdown in economic growth in DMs. We think this is being driven by three structural factors: Chinese overcapacity, the AI...

15th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland GDP (Q2 2024)

The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to...

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July...

9th August 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

What to make of the latest moves in EM currencies

Heightened US recession worries have helped unwound some of the stretched positions in high-carry EM currencies, resulting in their exchange rates moving closer to their “fair values” (judging by our...

9th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil

Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on...

2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing finally running out of steam

The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities

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How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign...

1st August 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Jun.)

Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y.

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read