Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3. 2nd September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2024) The Turkish GDP figures for Q2, which showed a better-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in output, suggest that the rebalancing process still has some way to go. The data argue in favour of the central... 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to... 30th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and should continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 29th August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for July were a mixed bag and suggest that the economy maintained a steady pace of growth at the start of this quarter. But we still... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024) A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The weaker-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for July is more likely to be a blip than the start of a soft patch. We remain comfortable with our view that Poland’s economy will expand by... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, and offered little sign that it will soon start an easing cycle. While most other analysts expect monetary... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means... 20th August 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
