Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems

At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture...

10th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Is Turkey losing external competitiveness?

Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher

The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling...

27th June 2024 · 46 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, the post-meeting...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM easing cycle moving into a new phase

Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is...

27th June 2024 · 26 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read