Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the...

17th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries

The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How will Mexico’s election affect nearshoring prospects?

The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry...

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel GDP (Q1 2024)

The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its pre-war level. The latest indicators suggest that activity is likely to recover...

16th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in...

16th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024)

The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards

The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2024)

Capital flows into EM bonds and equities have fallen to their lowest in six months as investors have pared back expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. However, even with these moves, we remain more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary-China relations: a limitless partnership?

Chinese President Xi’s visit to Hungary this week was the first by China’s head of state in 20 years and led to the establishment of an “all-weather partnership” between the two countries. There are...

10th May 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk

Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further

The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read