Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery Ukraine’s economy has seen rare good news over the past month as the IMF released additional funding after a long delay and recent data showed that growth strengthened. Nonetheless, there has been no... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) A decline in tourism receipts caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen further on a 12-month basis in August and ongoing security concerns will keep tourism revenues subdued and the external... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production rebounded in August, after July’s slump, but the bigger picture is that growth weakened over the first two months of Q3 and September’s manufacturing PMI suggests that... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Prague offices at a turning point? The current sweet spot for Prague office occupier demand isn’t likely to last for long. Next year will see vast levels of new completions alongside a slowdown in demand growth. Nevertheless, we expect... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC talks of rate hikes, but policy to remain loose Today’s data from the Halifax showed that house prices were more or less flat on the month in September. Therefore, it echoes the evidence provided by other indices that house prices have proved... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 6.4% y/y in September is unlikely to have any impact on the outlook for monetary policy over the rest of this year, but it does reinforce our view... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail rents enjoying a purple patch A solid and strengthening outlook for the Polish consumer sector will keep demand for prime retail units buoyant over the next couple of years. This will enable prime retail rents in Warsaw to grow by... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that Russia’s gradual recovery continued at the end of Q3, while growth in Central Europe was relatively strong. Elsewhere, the sharper-than-expected fall in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rate hikes coming onto the agenda Comments by the Romanian National Bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference suggest that the MPC is inching towards starting a tightening cycle, reinforcing our view that the... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A temporary pause in the EM recovery Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after accelerating for most of this year, EM growth was unchanged in July. We think that this pause in the EM recovery should prove to be temporary and we continue to... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
