Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing in Central Europe remained strong at the start of Q2, but highlight that the recoveries in Russia and Turkey are still fragile. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle has much further to run The Russian central bank’s 50bp interest rate cut to 9.25% today was larger than most (but not us) expected and, taken together with the relatively dovish tone of the statement, supports our view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble strength on policymakers’ radars The continued strength of the Russian ruble this month has started to raise concerns among policymakers, with President Putin hinting that some form of action might be taken to stem the rise. At the... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that regional growth was probably close to 4% y/y at the start of Q2. These figures support our above... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains close to eight-year low EM inflation remained at close to an eight-year low last month, driven in large part by weakening price pressures in the BRIC economies. Inflation has been on the rise in most other EMs, although not... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics dominates the headlines but market impact limited The escalation of political risks has dominated the headlines in EMs in recent weeks, but the fallout in financial markets has been surprisingly small. Equities in Russia and South Korea initially... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for March confirmed that the slump shown in the February figures was a blip. That said, weakness earlier in the quarter means that year-on-year GDP growth... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM stragglers start to pick up speed There has been a sharp turnaround in EM growth in recent months and we expect growth in several major economies, including Brazil and Russia, to surprise on the upside over the next year or so. But... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) & Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month supports our view that, while the central bank’s tightening cycle has probably run its course, interest rates will stay very high. In better news, March... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bond yields set to come down Russia’s bond market hardly moved in reaction to the central bank’s surprise re-start of its easing cycle last week. However, we think the policy rate will ultimately be lowered much further than... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that, in aggregate, growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed a touch this month. However, regional growth over Q1 as a whole still appears to have been... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
