Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero The Czech MPC’s post-meeting press conference reinforced our view that it will lift the exchange rate ceiling around the middle of next year. We think it’s unlikely that the koruna will strengthen... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The widespread rises in this month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Central and Eastern Europe should help to ease concerns about the region’s economic health following a run of weak hard... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook The decision by Moody’s to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to non-investment grade comes at a time when investment in Turkish commercial property is struggling. Given a worsening economic and... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign credit rating this month and the loss of the country’s investment grade status caused a small and short-lived sell-off in local financial markets, but perhaps... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp was accompanied by a clear shift in the Council’s focus to concerns about the economic slowdown. This provides even more... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted Despite growing views to the contrary, it’s not clear to us that the Czech koruna will appreciate sharply as and when the National Bank exits the exchange rate “cap” policy. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks remain in easing mode Emerging market policymakers have been in loosening mode in recent months, with our EM interest rate diffusion index showing that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked again in August. Rate cuts... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary upgraded but bond rally limited The rally in Hungary’s financial markets following its return to investment grade last Friday has grabbed the headlines, but in practice most of the fall in its dollar bond spreads happened in 2012-14... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers turn to international bond markets An increasing number of frontier markets are turning to the international bond markets as they look to paper over the cracks in their finances. Argentina got the ball rolling earlier this year when it... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed The decision by the Hungarian MPC to limit the use of its three-month deposit facility has been signalled as an effort to loosen monetary conditions, but recent experience suggests that it’s unlikely... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy continued to pull out of its slump, albeit very slowly. The recovery is still being driven by industry, but there are no signs of improvement... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) The sharp improvement in last month’s Polish activity data will ease concerns of a slowdown sparked by July’s weak figures. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth picked up to around 3.0% y/y last month... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
