Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow property about to turn a corner, albeit, slowly The acute phase of Russia’s latest economic crisis now appears to be behind it. However, the prospect of only a weak economic recovery means that a strong rebound of the Moscow commercial property... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe Preliminary Q2 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due later this week are likely to show an encouraging uptick in growth in Central Europe. Meanwhile, output in the region’s largest economy, Russia... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, suggesting that the pick-up in outflows seen in June was just a blip. The big picture is that they have fallen... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 7.2% y/y in July suggests that – barring an upside surprise in this month’s CPI figure – the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood The Romanian MPC’s press conference was a little more dovish than we had anticipated, but robust domestic demand and rising inflation mean gradual interest rate hikes still seem more likely than not... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in July, to 8.8% y/y, will make it difficult for the central bank to justify any further loosening of monetary conditions. The easing cycle had... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) July’s manufacturing PMIs point to a further slowdown in industrial production growth in Central Europe, to around 2% y/y, which could be an early sign of spillovers from the UK’s Brexit vote. However... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in EM growth pauses Our GDP Tracker suggests that the recent recovery in EM growth paused in May. Nonetheless, preliminary data from June have been more encouraging and we expect EM growth to regain some momentum over... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
