Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up Our GDP Tracker suggests that, having stalled in July, the EM recovery has since resumed. This is due in large part to a pick-up in growth in China. In contrast, the latest data from Brazil have... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms The Central Bank of Russia’s statement accompanying its decision to keep the policy rate at 10.0% today was predictably hawkish and supports our view that monetary easing will be gradual. But the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that GDP in the region as a whole expanded by a robust 3.5-4% y/y at the start of Q4. The Polish and Czech... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months EM inflation has been driven largely by moves in commodity prices this year. The decline in food inflation seen in recent months has probably now happened, and rising fuel inflation is set to push EM... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further signs of regional slowdown The past month brought further signs of a slowdown in regional growth in Q3. Turkey is the main culprit. Growth there appears to have slowed to a crawl following July’s coup attempt, which hit... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might derail our European property yield forecasts? The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end The Turkish MPC didn’t rule out a resumption of its easing cycle following the surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, but for our part we think that further falls in the lira and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Activity data for September suggest that the Russian recovery may have stalled in the third quarter, which was largely the result of weakness in the industrial sector. Overall, we think that GDP... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity data for September were by no means a disaster, and the figures suggest overall GDP growth edged down to around 2.8% over Q3 as a whole, compared... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
