Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1 Higher oil prices led to sharp rises in inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the end of 2016, and this has further to run in the next few months. All in all, oil prices are likely to... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira The plunge in the lira doesn’t, so far, appear to have resulted in significant balance sheet strains, but the rapid rise in private sector FX liabilities suggests that this is still a risk. At the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bright start to 2017 unlikely to last Financial markets in the emerging world have generally made a bright start to 2017, but we doubt their recent good form will continue given the large amount of uncertainty regarding the global... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Romania was less hawkish than we had expected. Nonetheless, with further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and economic slack now exhausted... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The batch of relatively strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe in December suggests that, after a disappointing third quarter, GDP growth in the region recovered in Q4. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends 2016 on a strong note Manufacturing in the emerging world remained strong at the end of last year according to the latest PMIs. Conditions in China and Russia, in particular, continued to improve. That being said, the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The surprisingly sharp rise in Turkish inflation in December, to 8.5% y/y, was due mainly to a jump in food and energy inflation, although the weakness of the lira is also feeding through into higher... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017 The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today suggests that the Council thinks the need for additional monetary easing has diminished. As a result, we have taken the very... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey The health of banking sectors in Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) has improved significantly in recent years. And they are now much less exposed to a fresh eruption of financial stress in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising oil prices support Russia market rally The rise in oil prices following the agreement by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has helped Russian equities and the ruble to outperform for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, Polish... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) November’s relatively strong Russian activity data were flattered by working-day effects, but they still suggest that the economy is nearing a return to positive growth. Elsewhere, a healthy batch of... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017 The Russian central bank’s post-meeting press conference provided the firmest signs yet that the easing cycle will resume next year. Governor Nabiullina’s comment that Q2 was the most likely time for... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ending the year with a whimper Most economies in Emerging Europe enjoyed a strong first half of 2016, but regional growth has slowed sharply over the second half of the year. Q3 GDP data showed that the Turkish economy suffered an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets regain their poise, but risks remain Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
