Emerging Europe Economics Update End of sanctions would give small but short-lived boost to Russia Today’s news that Donald Trump has nominated Rex Tillerson to be Secretary of State has clearly increased the chances that US sanctions on Russia will be lifted in the coming years. Were that to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect The much-sharper-than-expected 1.8% y/y contraction in Turkish GDP in Q3 probably marks the low point of the economy’s coup-induced slump. Nonetheless, the data reinforce our view that most analysts... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale The Russian government’s sale of part of its stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore late yesterday has raised questions about what the deal means for sanctions, the currency... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to stay on hold through 2017-18 Comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference support our view that interest rates will be left unchanged next year, not hiked as the markets... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest industrial rents have further to rise Contrary to popular belief, we think that it has been the strength of the domestic economy, rather than firms relocating to Romania on cost grounds, which has caused prime Bucharest industrial rents... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based The recently-released breakdowns of Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe showed that most major expenditure components weakened, although there was still some encouraging news at a country... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.8% y/y, won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to resume its easing cycle at the rate-setting meeting next week. Nonetheless, we think the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The surprise fall in Turkish inflation in November means that, at the margin, it looks less likely that the MPC will follow up last month’s interest rate hike with another this month. Nonetheless... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook CEE yields to fall faster and for longer As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that growth in the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened between Q3 and Q4. At a country level, the surveys suggest that Russia’s recovery is... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
