Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2018 The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What will 2018 bring for EM local currency bonds? Despite the prospect of more monetary tightening in the US than investors are anticipating next year, we think that local factors will have more of a bearing on monetary policy in emerging markets... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the EM world were essentially balanced last month. Over 2017 as a whole, outflows will be about US$55bn, just an eighth of the total recorded in... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to a six-year high of 11.1% y/y, was flattered by the comparison with Q3 of last year, when output was disrupted by the coup attempt. The annual rate of... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE not yet overheating, but risks are building The sheer pace of GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe in Q3 has raised a few eyebrows. For now, there are few signs that economies in the region are overheating. But we are becoming... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt mean? Speculation that US sanctions could be expanded to include sovereign debt have caused a stir in the Russian bond market. It is still far from certain that this will happen. But were it to materialise... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2018 In this note we publish a guide to elections that are scheduled across the emerging world in 2018. The calendar is busier than it was in 2017 but, whereas elections this year boosted the prospects for... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift The surprisingly dovish tone taken by Governor Glapinski in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting belies the hawkish shift in sentiment across the Council as a whole. In spite of the... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.5% y/y last month means the central bank is now all but certain to continue its easing cycle next week. We expect a 25bp cut to 8.00%. Inflation has probably... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rapid Czech wage growth to prompt more rate hikes The continued strong run of Czech wage data has been driven by a tightening of labour market conditions. With labour shortages continuing to mount, wage growth is set to remain rapid over the coming... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a fourteen-year high of 13.0% y/y in November, from 11.9% y/y in October, will undoubtedly alarm policymakers at the central bank. With the government seemingly... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth on the rise in Q4 The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest EM manufacturing growth has gained momentum across the emerging world and looks set to end the year on a positive note. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Do smaller, second cities now offer better value? With some of the tightest office markets, core European cities are set to see the best rates of rental growth over the 2018-21 period. However, with lower current yields and a weaker outlook for... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP growth has remained strong in Central Europe in Q4, probably at around 4.5-5.0% y/y. The pick-up in Russia’s PMI was also encouraging in light of the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth ends Q3 on a high Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in just over five years in September. However, more timely data from early reporting countries suggests that growth has... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
