Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds and steps up its rhetoric on inflation fight Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting and the hawkish tone in the statement, including a commitment to bring inflation back to the 5% target, supports... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy and the impact so far The shift in policymaking at Turkey’s central bank has supported a rally in local financial markets over the past few months and we think this has further to run. We now expect the Turkish lira to end... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2020) The Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that all countries other than Poland grew at the end of 2020. But there was a marked divergence across the region that can be partly explained... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Slow vaccine rollout, Turkey’s S-400s, Czech tightening The incredibly slow start to vaccination programmes across the region threatens to delay the recovery we had expected from Q2 this year. Meanwhile, signs that Turkey is open to compromise on its... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q4 2020) GDP figures show that Poland’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q4, which is likely to have been among the larger falls across Europe. Containment measures are likely to be lifted slowly in a few... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a near two-year high of 5.2% y/y in January will remove any chance of an interest rate cut in the coming months. The central bank will wait for evidence that... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sputnik V gets a thumbs up, Turkey’s constitution plans Russia's vaccination programme has got off to a slow start, but the the publication of peer-reviewed trial results that confirm the high efficacy of the Sputnik V vaccine should help to improve... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rate cuts are in view Stubbornly high inflation and concerns about a weaker exchange rate mean that Hungary’s central bank (MNB) will keep its powder dry in the next few months. But we think that inflation will ease over... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the protests in Russia The waves of protests that have taken place across Russia in recent weeks pose the biggest challenge to President Putin in close to a decade and have put a risk premium on the ruble. The government is... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper falls in Warsaw office rents to come in 2021 Given its significant office supply pipeline, we have revised down our rental forecast for Warsaw offices this year despite a recovery in the labour market. And while we expect rents to pick up in... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose again in January and may edge up a little further in the next few months, but we think that the central bank has probably done enough to convince investors that... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2020) The surprise 0.3% q/q growth in Czech GDP in Q4 was much better than expected as strength in industry more than offset weakness in services. This suggests that, despite being hit hard by a renewed... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2020) The full-year decline in Russian GDP of 3.1% in 2020 suggests that the economy expanded slightly in Q4 as the authorities opted for light-touch containment measures in response to the second virus... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs for January were encouraging in Turkey and Russia and strong export performance continued to support Poland’s manufacturing sector. That said, there are further signs that... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
