Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT & NBU in tightening mode, NBP not even close The further rise in inflation in Turkey last month and the continued fall in the lira this week prompted a hawkish announcement from the CBRT and we now expect a 100bp rise in the one-week repo rate... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the divergence in Central Europe in Q4 The full breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central Europe showed that net trade exerted a drag on growth in Poland while it provided a boost to Czechia and Hungary. But looking ahead, mounting headwinds to... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February showed strong increases in output and new export orders in Poland and Russia, while manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Turkey and Czechia. The survey also... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Market rout grips Turkey, third waves the talk in CEE The Turkish lira has been among the hardest hit EM currencies this week amid the global market sell off and, while concerns that the shift in policymaking is unravelling are probably overdone, there's... 26th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement in sentiment across Central and Eastern Europe in February. A broad-based pick up in services sentiment drove the increase, while... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Headwinds to the recovery mount Emerging Europe came through the second virus wave in Q4 in a better state than we had expected, with services sectors holding up and industry booming in Central Europe. But the headwinds have mounted... 24th February 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Robust labour markets bode well for the recovery Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have held up well since the start of the pandemic and we think this will continue over the next few years, which will support recoveries across... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Further pain in store for retail While virus restrictions have weighed on retail markets across Europe, the hit has been particularly severe in CEE. Indeed, core-CEE prime retail rents fell by an eye-watering 20% last year, the... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Polish activity data for January suggest that the economy broadly stagnated at the start of the year as the extension of virus containment measures hit the retail sector while industry remained... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that industry came off the boil at the start of the year while activity in the retail sector picked up strongly. The fall in virus cases and relaxation of some... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe, the pandemic and the inflation outlook The pandemic hasn’t had a major disinflationary effect in Central Europe and the region is in what we think will turn out to be a prolonged period of above-target inflation. But how this affects... 18th February 2021 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds and steps up its rhetoric on inflation fight Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting and the hawkish tone in the statement, including a commitment to bring inflation back to the 5% target, supports... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read