Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2021) The Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed a divergence in performance between the regions’ economies amid third virus waves, with Hungary and Romania outperforming. With virus situations... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Gaza conflict, CEE inflation spike The experience of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in 2014 suggests that the economic impact of the current conflict may be limited and temporary. So long as it ends soon, we still expect a... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest on the virus and vaccines The sharp fall in virus cases and increase in the rate of vaccinations since March means that a sustained economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe looks set to begin over the coming months. But... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s recovery plan, hawkish central banks in CEE Poland submitted its recovery and resilience plan to the European Commission over the past week and, while the plan to boost long-term growth looks ambitious, it should make a major contribution... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s robust manufacturing PMIs for Czechia and Poland were artificially boosted by longer supplier delivery times and there were further signs that supply chain issues have caused price pressures... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey heading into lockdown as CEE starts to re-open The imposition of a national lockdown in Turkey this week adds to the headwinds facing the recovery and means that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for this year are skewed to the downside. In... 30th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) recorded their largest ever monthly aggregate improvement across Central and Eastern Europe in April. Sentiment remains below its pre-pandemic level but... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook New virus waves to drag on the recovery The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see... 28th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Third waves subside, outlook brightens Third virus waves held back recoveries in most countries in Q1, but the good news is that they appear to have peaked as new daily COVID-19 cases have fallen since mid-March. Russia has so far avoided... 28th April 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near the front of the EM pack Third virus waves and the slow vaccine rollout will weigh on near-term growth in the region, but we expect a strong recovery in activity to take place later this year and in 2022. Our forecasts for... 26th April 2021 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s fiscal gift, lira fall, Polish inflation, Israel launch President Putin’s state of the nation address this week outlined more social welfare measures ahead of elections in September, but the implications for growth and inflation will be limited. Meanwhile... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Virus outbreaks cloud the outlook New COVID-19 cases have surged in the emerging world, with India, Emerging Europe and Latin America particularly hard hit. Social distancing measures have been tightened in many countries, which will... 21st April 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Virus outbreaks diverge, Russian sanctions, CBRT hold Third waves of COVID-19 in Central Europe seem to have peaked and authorities are moving to ease restrictions on activity, which should support recoveries. But Turkey’s outbreak has gone from bad to... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT opening the door to rate cuts The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% was accompanied by reassuring language that the MPC, under new governor Sahap Kavciouglu, aims to bring down... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Conflict in the Donbass, Turkey’s FX reserve problem The flare up in military tensions between Russia and Ukraine this week poses a major threat to political stability in the region and could exacerbate some existing macro vulnerabilities in both... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read