Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rare zloty weakness, Erdogan’s extended purge The Polish zloty touched its weakest level against the euro this week since 2009 but we don’t expect the currency to lose any more ground from here. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Erdogan took further... 1st April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs showed that supply problems intensified in March, and this continued to push up price pressures. While supply disruption also artificially pushed up the headline PMIs, there are... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Headwinds to the recovery start to build The economic data out of the emerging world for Q1 look reasonably strong, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks and a shift towards policy tightening are creating headwinds for some EMs. Activity in... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement across most of Central and Eastern Europe in March, despite a surge in virus cases across the region. That said, sentiment in... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE’s delayed recovery, cautious CNB, Turkey turmoil The rise in virus infections, extension of containment measures and slow pace of vaccination mean that we are revising down our GDP forecasts in Central Europe this year. Meanwhile, the fallout from... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Less than stellar recovery in values Following a year marked with sharp falls in retail rents and rising retail and office yields, the next few months for property values will continue to be dismal. We have pencilled in another drop in... 26th March 2021 · 19 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions on the EU’s carbon border tax Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’)... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Region leading the EM central bank policy shift Emerging Europe has been at the heart of the shift in EM monetary policy over the past month, with central banks in Russia, Turkey and Ukraine raising interest rates in March. The triggers for... 25th March 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan sacks Agbal, risk of currency crisis grows The shock decision by Turkey’s President Erdogan to sack central bank governor Naci Agbal late on Friday is likely to trigger large falls in the lira when markets open on Monday. It looks like the... 20th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions, vaccine worries, NBR turns hawkish Comments from US President Joe Biden this week threatening to take a tougher stance against Russia have raised the prospect of tighter US sanctions that could deal a significant blow to Russian... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus developments pushing back the recovery The renewed surge in virus cases and tightening of restrictions across Central Europe will deal a heavy blow to the recovery in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, slow vaccine rollouts mean that... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Taper tantrum fears return EM financial markets have been hit this month by the rise in US Treasury yields, which has re-ignited some concerns about a re-run of the Taper Tantrum. So far, capital outflows from EMs have been... 16th March 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s CA deficit, sticky inflation in Hungary Current account figures out of Turkey this week were a bit worse than expected but the underlying trend suggests that the economy is rebalancing. This, alongside a further interest rate hike by the... 12th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: semiconductor shortages add to H1 headwinds The disruption to auto production caused by semiconductor shortages is yet another reason (alongside tight COVID-19 restrictions) to expect growth in Central and Eastern Europe to struggle in H1 2021. 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read