Global Central Bank Watch How will central banks respond to the inflation threat? The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the... 30th June 2021 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might hike next? The next EM central banks likely to raise interest rates are those whose economic recoveries are relatively advanced and can focus on inflation and/or financial risks. Chile and Korea fit into this... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial still a bright spot With virus restrictions set to be eased further, we expect the recovery in economic activity to gather pace from Q3, which should give occupier markets a lift. But the pick-up will not be enough to... 25th June 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB starts lift-off, aggressive tightening cycle in store The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.50% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications support our view that this marks the start of what will be the most... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a short, sharp tightening cycle takes hold Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised interest rates by 30bp today and with inflation set to remain above the MNB’s 4% upper tolerance level well into 2022, we expect an additional 60bp of tightening at... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish retail sales rebounded strongly in May as restrictions were lifted, while industry continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP looks set to return to its pre-virus level in Q2 and we expect the... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Hawks to remain in the minority … for now While policymakers in Hungary and Czechia look set to lift interest rates from their pandemic lows later this week, we doubt that Poland’s central bank will follow suit this year. That said, with... 21st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Moscow’s virus surge, MNB and CNB ready for lift-off A surge in virus infections and tightening of containment measures in Moscow this week, coming alongside very low vaccine coverage, threatens to weigh on activity and derail Russia's economic recovery... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT still treading cautiously The statement accompanying today’s decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% suggests that policymakers are (for now) standing up to political pressure to lower... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
