Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a surprising fall in regional sentiment in July, but we suspect that this was a blip rather than the start of a trend. We still expect growth to be strong... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June showed that the economy expanded at a solid pace in Q2, with overall GDP probably returning to just shy of its pre-pandemic level. While the re-opening boost will fade... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Activity rebounding as economies re-open The region’s economies have continued to rebound strongly over the past month as virus outbreaks have largely been contained and restrictions have been lifted. Surveys of sentiment in the services... 28th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB steps up front-loaded tightening cycle The larger-than-expected 30bp interest rate hike by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) today was accompanied by hawkish comments that send a strong message about its intention to bring inflation back to its... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening Concerns have grown over the past week about the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 but high vaccine coverage across much of the region has reduced the risk that policymakers will be forced to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBR hikes rates sharply, but cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger 100bp interest rate hike, to 6.50%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications provided clear guidance that the tightening cycle is nearing... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the Delta variant: what we know so far A rise in virus cases in Israel has prompted the government to re-impose restrictions on activity, including mask mandates and vaccine certification for large events. There are signs that the Pfizer... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Poland Activity Data (Jun.) Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June suggest that the rebound in economic activity softened a touch at the end of Q2, but GDP still looks to have expanded by 2.0% q/q in Q2... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the Delta variant’s threat to recoveries The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 poses a much bigger risk to economic recoveries in emerging markets than in developed markets. India, South Africa, and South East Asia have suffered... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: surging inflation to prompt more rate hikes Russian inflation shows no sign of letting up and looks set to remain above the central bank’s 4% target until at least the end of next year. With households’ inflation expectations also rising, we... 19th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
